English Premier League betting trends ahead of Week 30: the trend for away wins continues

Football never ceases to be popular with sports betting fans. Bookmakers often offer steep odds, punters hope for their own luck and analysts test their skills, with some of them testing them in cash, so to speak.

Previously, the Bundesliga was actively used for “bookmaking”. However, it has been successfully displaced by several others. Thus the most spectacular recognized English Premier League, which, incidentally, once again proves the incredible fanaticism of the English in terms of football. The leagues are dragged down by the Serie A, which periodically attracts a lot of attention.

Trends on the EPL side

Despite the competition in terms of appeal, the English Premier League is still amongst the favourites. The efficiency is estimated at 2.81. A higher figure was noted back in the 2018-19 season. The difference is negligible, though, and with this season’s result again proving that the EPL is back in the lead.

To understand the overall situation, it makes sense to drill down a little more. In order to do so, we should look at the individual clubs. For convenience, they have been grouped into separate groups. The classification is made according to these categories:

• total more – less than 2.5;
• both will score;
• both to score – no.

The general categories have been subdivided even further. They look like this (percentage of games by TM (2.5))

• total <2.5: Wolverhampton 71%, Brighton 75%;
• total>2.5: Liverpool – 68%;
• both goals: Newcastle – 67%;
• both to score – no: Wolverhampton – 71% (again).

As practice shows, if a team is playing “at home”, i.e. in their home stadium, the rule of a certain atmosphere comes into play here. It supposedly helps the players, cheers them up and ensures if not a win, then at least a draw. It doesn’t always work, but statistically it does in most cases, which of course is taken into account by the analysts and bookmakers.

Thus it is considered that in the home stadium the club scores an average of 1.5 goals per game. The visitors’ result in a similar situation is usually 1.3. Statistically, the activity comes into play in the second half, when the teams intend to clarify who will be the winner in the end. The odds are 1.31 versus 1.5. We elaborate further and clarify that 32.07 minutes are allocated for one goal.

We proceed further and observe a point that was kindly “outlined” by the professionals. Approximately a quarter of the goals are realized between 76-90 minutes. The percentage of goals scored in the last 10 minutes is 18. The highest percentage of goals scored at the moment comes from Liverpool – 2.61 per encounter. In addition, the club also scored over 3.5.

Influence of the fans’ presence on the outcome of matches

As the current season shows, numerous wins have been observed for the visiting teams. Some experiments have attributed this to the fact that last season the games were played without fans due to the pandemic. At that time, location didn’t play a role, because the traditional fan support wasn’t there.

Now two explanations are present. The first is that either teams have become accustomed to the presence of fans and then get lost by their presence in the stands. The second explanation is that things have changed so much that even such an environment no longer plays a role.